9 posts from April 2007

I'm not particularly good at guessing the end of movies, but I guessed the end of the Idol Cares episode about halfway in. It was when Ryan said that the results would "shock us." At that point the only people left were Chris, Lakisha and Jordin. The only one of those who would have shocked us was Jordin and I just knew that wasn't happening. And it made sense that they wouldn't want to send anybody home on a "special" night. I knew they wouldn't want to add an extra week, because that would push the finale out of the May sweeps, so I guessed at that point, nobody goes home today, two go home next week, and for once this season, I was right.

I also sense that I was not alone. I didn't hear a huge collective gasp go through the audience. I heard a small gasp. I think most everybody had caught on by then. I think had they not tried to get cute with the "results will shock you" line, far more people, including me, would have been shocked.

After the show, they said the decision had been made by the producers and the judges didn't know. But based on what we've learned this season about his position within the show, do you really think Simon was kept in the dark? I doubt it.

What I thought was interesting was that Jordin was the one they chose to pretend to be the one going home, not Melinda. Does that mean they thought she would be more shocking or more believable than Melinda? Or maybe more interesting? 

Imagine they had reversed the two? Jordin was told she was safe early and it came down to Chris and Melinda. Imagine they didn't tip their hand with the "shocking results" tease and then Ryan says, Chris... you are safe. There would be a moment when you would believe Melinda was going home. She was good this week, but she's always good. There's no Sanjaya or Haley in the line-up now. Even Phil, has been strong the last two weeks. Jordin has stepped up and given her her first challenge and maybe people are bored with Melinda. So I think you would believe for a second that she was going home.

But instead, they chose Jordin, who was at once, less believable and less shocking. Why?

I'll tell you why. And Kathy is going to roll her eyes. Cause the show is rooting for Jordin over Melinda. They think Jordin can sell more records than Melinda and I think they're right. I honestly don't think anybody this season is going to sell a whole lot of records, but Jordin has a better shot. By putting her in fake jeopardy for a minute, they energized her fans.

Now what about next week? They said they would keep their lines open for 4 hours again, but there is no way they are going to get as many votes as they did this week. So, to a large extent, the fate is already sealed. Plus they are sendng two people home. So if somebody was solidly in sixth, this week, they are going to have a hard time climbing to 4th. So, I'm going to put my money on Lakisha and one of the guys, and of the guys, I think Phil is now in the best position. Which means, unless I'm terribly wrong, (first time ever) or unless Phil really messes up, he could be in the Phinal Phour. That would be pretty damn shocking. 

Speaking of next week, I need to talk about scoring. If the show makes it absolutely clear that one person got the least number of votes and one person got the second least, then we will have a fifth place and a sixth place finisher for the scores. 

However, if they are vague in any way, so that it's not clear which one finished ahead of which one, we will consider the two ejectees to be tied for fith. Luckily, we are in the 2 point rounds now, so it will be simple. If you have one of the ejectees in 6th or 5th, you will lose 1 point. If you have them in 7th or 3rd, 3 points. Etc. 

I will watch the show, hear what they say and make my determination. However, after I do, If anybody disagrees and has evidence that proves me wrong... something I missed from the show... something that appears in the official FOX website... something an official spokesman says in the media... you have till Friday at midnight to email or post me with your appeal.

Now please keep in mind, they sometimes choose the order they send people home for dramatic reasons, not based on their order of finish. I will listen closely to everything Ryan says to determine if they are announcing that one person had a lower vote total than the other.

And finally, in a comment to my last post, Kathy accused me of being overly racial in my analysis and PC. After Idol refused to send somebody home on "We are the world" day, I don't think anybody can be considered overly PC, but as for the racial thing... I talk about what interests me here, and what interests me are voting trends, based on race, gender and age. Of these, race might be the most significant ever since the Fantasia/Latoya/Jennifer bottom three incident. Interestingly, the LA Times had an article about the same thing the other day.

In my defense, I've never said that Americans didn't have the right to vote in a racially biassed way. The freedom to vote means you can vote for whomever you want for whatever reason you want. When the judges say, this isn't a popularity contest, they are wrong. It's voting. It's based entirely on popularity. I've never criticized America's voting patterns. I've only analyzed them. I do critique what I see as the show's desire to pursuade America's voting, when it becomes transparent. I've felt at times that the show has attempted to sway voters based on who the show wants to win. And that is based on record sales and ratings.

But I am fascinated by the patterns. And the patterns I discuss include age and gender as well as race. And sometimes all three in combination. In what I consider a boring year of Idol, this is one of the few things that keeps it interesting for me.

One pattern that has been rock solid is older guys and younger women. A few years ago, they raised the age limit and until this year, that seemed to only affect the guys. Bo, Constantine, Taylor, Elliott, Chris and Ace were all guys who couldn't have competed when the age limit was 24. Same for the three guys who are still around now, as well as Chris Sligh and Brandon. And the young guys who have slipped through have all been jokes. Not just Sanjaya this year, but also Chicken Little last year and the crooner guy a few years ago. I think these guys all look cute at the auditions and their voices sound nice in the small room. But then they get on the big stage and they're terrible, but teenage girl voters keep them around, to Simon's consternation.

If a 21 year old male were to ever make it to the top six and be considered a contender, it would be shocking.

With women, it's been the other way. Until this season. In season three, when the final four were all women, Latoya London, 24 finished fourth. That left an all-teenage top three, Jasmine Trias, Dianne Digarmo and Fantasia. I never thought of Fantasia as a teen, because she looked older and was a mom, but she was 19.

Last year we not only had two 16 year olds, Paris and Lisa, but two of the other contenders, Katherine and Kelly were 20 and 21. The one older woman, Mandeeza, was 28 and she went surprising early. Was it cause she was old? Fat? Black? A little too into Jesus? Maybe it was a combination of all those factors.

But given all that, you have to consider it a little surprising that the two singers who were the top contenders for the first month or so were old (for the competition), overweight, black and admitted, at least a little, to liking Jesus. Based on what happened in season 3, I would have expected voters to turn away from one of them sooner. But they have not. And the one thing that has somewhat pushed Lakisha to the sidelines, besides the fact that she's clearly not as skilled as Melinda, is the emergence of Jordin.

All this is interesting, to me, and I don't think it has anything to do with being PC. 

Oh, one more thing. Didn't Paula's boobs look great? A few weeks ago on the internet people were posting pics and saying she was saggy. But I think she's gone to the shop for a tune up.

For more info: http://www.ONE.org.

I did vote a few times tonight, partly for my peeps and partly cause it would help a good cause. It will be interesting to see if the cause helps raise the voter total.

The tables seem to have shifted over the past couple of weeks. According to Dialidol. They have Jordin clearly in first this week, with Melinda well down in the scores. They also have Phil in second. The last two weeks have lifted Jordin first beyond Lakisha to become Melinda's main rival and now probably ahead of Melinda as the favorite.



Though Melinda's singing continues to be strong and the judges liked her again, for the first time, she has a genuine rival, who looks and feels like an Idol. 

While I think LaKisha probably is now the weakest of the three females, there is no excuse for the treatment the judges have given to her the past two weeks. I really think the show realized that a final featuring two, older, heavier black women (albeit with great voices) was not going to be a crowd pleaser and have targetted LaKisha for elimination, but I thought she did well tonight. Randy was lukewarm and Simon again accused her of shouting. But what Paula said was unforgivable. To tell LaKisha that she isn't singer enough to take on Fantasia's song is just total BS. They've told other singers that they weren't singer enough for Whitney or Mariah or Celine, but c'mon, Fantasia has yet to acheive true stardom and considering that in the first week LaKisha took on the challenge of singing And I Am Telling You on the week of the Oscars, and nailed it, I just think they have decided she has to go. I hope the voters rebel. I know I did. I cast most of my votes for her. 

As for the guys, it's anybody's game now. Phil was the on the bottom for so many weeks, and now, after his first week out of the bottom, he delivers a strong performance and wins over the judges.



He was definitely stonger than Blake, who followed his first week in the bottom three with an unoriginal performance of a classic song that did nothing to showcase his strengths.



And then there's Chris, who had the misfortune to go first. Dialidol has him lowest, but the judges liked him and I thought he was in tune for the first time this season, singing a song that complemented his style.

I'm guessing LaKisha, Chris and Blake would be the bottom three (if they have one, it could be bottom two this week). Of those three, I have no idea who is most likely to go home.

I'll tell you, I watched that tape they showed and I'm still not sure that he wasn't frowning at Chris' reach for a sympathy vote.

I'm also not sure if the Virginia connection didn't boost Chris past Blake in the voting. With Chris in the bottom three twice, I have just been assuming that Blake was more popular. The only explanation I can think of for Blake's dip is that maybe his voters were part of the Phil surge or maybe they moved over to Chris. If it was Phil, I'd have to assume it's cause Phil performed real well. If it was Chris, I think it was the Virginia thing.

Either way, I was pretty shocked, and so, I guess, was everybody else. 

Were any of you surprised that Paula was so quick to dismiss Lakeesha's appearance in the bottom three? I really think the show has decided they can't have her and Melinda head to head and have deemed her expendable. With Blake and Kiki in the bottom three, Melinda and Jordin are now the only ones never to be there.

I thought they did a good job of building the suspence. By putting Sanjaya and Phil on opposite sides, you kind of knew that either one could be the safe side. When they sent Jordin to Phil's side, everybody applauded because they knew that meant Phil was safe. Lakeesha didn't change anybody's mind. But when Chris went to the "safe" side and Blake to the other, you could hear the surprise and confusion. They're good at that suspense stuff.

With Sanjaya gone, it's now a genuine singing competition. They probably have the best six singers up there from the final 12 and maybe even from the top 24. I know I've put Phil down, but it's never been his voice that's the problem. Strong voice. Boring singer. I think he's the opposite of Blake and Chris who are fun to watch but not powerful on the vocals. You could make a case for Sligh or Sundance, I guess, but I think it's safe to say that Phil, Chris and Blake were probably the three best male singers in the competition. Melinda, Lakeesha and Jordin were clearly the three best women, so even though it took them awhile, America has pretty much gotten it right.

So now it's three white guys and three black women. Kind of like date night at Robert DeNiro's house.

As far as the pool goes, it was another strong night for Mr. Spector. With Sanjaya in tenth place, he added to his lead against many of us. Robin and Natanya had Sanjaya in 8th, so the pick up two points on Steve, but they also have Phil in 12th, so that's going to hurt them when he eventually goes. They also have Melinda winning, whereas Steve has her in fourth, but they have Jordin in 7th, while Steve has her in second.

The Frosts have interesting ballots. Both lost a few point on Sanjaya last night, but they are still in shouting distance of the lead. Interestingly, they both have Phil pretty high up, so they'll pick up points on most of us there. Kristina has Melinda in first and Jordin second, a definite advantage on Spector and John has Blake winning, so between the two of them, they're covered in most of the likely eventualities.

Steve must feel frustrated. He finally scores better than Jojo, only to have Jojo's sister nipping at his heels.

Inspite of Sanjaya's surprisingly strong finish, nobody is going to be hurt too bad by him. If you had him in 12th, you lose 5 points, but you're not alone and you're only losing one point to the many people who had him in 11th. Lori, who had him in 4th, stood to win big if he stuck around at least one more week. Not only would it have brought him one step closer to her and one further from the 11th and 12th pickers, it would have doubled the score deductions. Instead, she ends up getting the same deduction as people who had him in 10th and worse than those who had him 9th or 8th.

The big hurt starts next week, when point values double. Phil is going to be the big determinator. The worst he can do is 6th, which means the best people can do if they had him finishing last is -12. Considering that some people have him 6th or higher, that's a big point differential. There's nobody else left who has nearly as many bottom rung votes, so he's the most volitile candidate.

Now it starts getting interesting. 

Country week is never my favorite week. Not only is it not my favorite genre of music, but usually at least a few of the contestants are really bad at it.

First, of all, I should say that I don't hate country music. I tend to like the older stuff, Willy Nelson, Merle Haggard, Patsy Cline, etc. Ever since country stated crossing over to a mainstream audience, I think it's become too pop-ish. But I can handle it if it's done well, but usually on Idol, it's hit or miss, and this season, I was expected more misses.

But I was pleasantly surprised!

Phil got the evening off to a nice start, with his best performance yet and, I think, the best performance among the men. I was ready for the worst, when I saw him reading off a lyric sheet while working with Martina McBride (we were told it was earlier that day!) but instead he was real comfortable and he had lost all the stiffness. Country is perfect for his voice and for the first time since this thing began, I actually thought he had the beat and feel. The judges agreed, and I hope he sticks around another week.

According to DialIdol, he will. In fact, he's in first by a landslide. Quite a turnaround. I don't see it lasting into other genres, but even if he lasts two more weeks, that's quite a turnaround for a guy who has been on the bottom three every week since the beginning.

And since I didn't mention it last week, I should now. I like the way Phil handled his non-dismissal last week. He had a big smile on his face as he girded for the moment, and then when he heard that he was staying, he had a look of shock mixed for what look like genuine sadness over Haley's ouster. Not only can he sing, he can act too.

I said he was the best of the guys, so I'll stay with them for a minute. Chris was pretty weak, but no more nassally than usual. At this point, when only Phil, he and Sanjaya have been in the bottom three, he has to be considered vulnerable. He certainly doesn't have a voice to compare with the three remaining women and he doesn't seem to have the appeal to match Blake. 

I also was not crazy about him shouting out to his friends in Virginia. In fact, I didn't like the way the show handled it in general. They started out well, with Ryan being subdued and mentioning it in the opening. When he went to the judges, they could have seconded his sentiment and even said something about the events being tough on everybody and particularly on the contestants, but once the competition started, it should have been put aside. The contestants should have been told not to mention it. Instead Chris sang poorly, got dissed by the judges and then through in the mention, somewhat gratuitously, I thought. They showed Simon making a face and then he echoed the sentiment, sounding like he had forgotten to do it earlier and was now paying obligitory lip service.

Tonight, when the voting is over, they will have the same audience, if the contestants wanted to say something now, if they want to dedicate a song to the victims, if they want to give Chris a minute because he's from Virginia, fine, but they shouldn't have let him hit that note as part of his plea for votes.

Blake doesn't excite me. He's just a so-so singer. He has style and uniqueness and it's interesting to have him in the mix with the three girls, but I'm just not a big fan.

And what can I say about Sanjaya? He's got to go. Last week, I loved him. This week, Martina McBride identified his problem. He doesn't open up his voice. It would be one thing if he was just scared or didn't have the voice, but now I think he's just lazy. He comes off really full of himself and comfortable on stage. He even starts to go for a big note, but then he just falls back on that karaoke drone. 

And what's with Ryan. Last week, he targetted Sanjaya for removal while Simon begrudgingly gave him props. This week, he accused Simon of "not liking the kid" and of kneejerk dissing him. It's boring.

Alright, enough of the mediocre (and worse) men. How 'bout them ladies?

During Jordin's song, I came to the conclusion that she is now the favorite. With only these three women left, she is ten years younger than the other two, much prettier and in the same league vocally. Also, I think Melinda and Lakisha have been the favorites too long and America will, or has, grown weary of them. Not enough variety and not enough charisma.

Jordin had a great week with standards, a so-so week with latin (but still got props from the judges) and a great week again, now. She's got the big Mo.

I actually was surprised when Lakisha didn't get the judges support. I thought it was a good song choice for her (though somewhat predictable) and I didn't hear the pitchiness. Simon was applauding at the end, which is rare, so imagine my surprise when they started saying it wasn't good.

I think the show has gotten bored with the Melinda-Lakisha rivalry and has decided to throw one to the wolves. If they end up with a Melinda-Jordin-Blake final three, that's good for the show and that's what they are pulling for. With Phil's surprise emergence, we will probably see somebody on the bottom three we've never seen before, and I'm guessing it's Lakisha.

At first, I thought the judges lukewarm response would ignite her fan base, but I think Simon said something to her that was deadly. He brought up her first week and the Jennifer Holiday song. The subtext to that, I thought, was to remind us that she debuted as #1, even blowing away Melinda and that she has not lived up to that moment since.

She hasn't really, though she has been good. But still, if she goes home tonight, she will always have that moment, and I think he perfomance on that song that first week, will live in the pantheon of great Idol moments for a long time to come.

And then there was Melinda. After last week, I was ready to give up on her. I wasn't expecting country to be her thing, and I expected her to do a ballad, like Lakisha, but it was a whole new Melinda this week. I kind of feel like an image consultant got a hold of her or something. I don't think I'll ever say Melinda looks pretty, but I think she came as close as she's capable this week. Great hair! Maybe Sanjaya gave her a few tips.

And instead of singing something old, she picked something so new, Martina McBride never even heard of it, and she gave it an exciting, pitch perfect rendition. And to cap things off, Simon even gave her good advice. Lose the surprise. It was wearing thin.

Melinda may not be young and cute, but she's a pro and I think she's capable of taking feedback and using it to her advantage. She's going to be around to the end.

So, tonight, it's Lakisha, Chris and Sanjaya on the bottom three and I'm praying Sanjaya goes home. I think those of you who have Phil and Jordin lasting a long time are looking good. 

No surprise there. The surprise, of course is that she lasted this long. More than half of us had her going home the very first week. Almost all the rest had her going home the next week or two. Just as unanimous was the choice of her, Sanjaya and Phil as the bottom three, so the real shock is that all three lasted till top 8. In fact, I think the reason Steve Spector started out the contest in sole possession of first place was that not only was he the only one to pick Brandon first, he was one of the only ones not to pick Haley, Sanjaya or Phil for that distinction. I think one person may have picked Stephanie. 

Of course you won't see much movement in the standings this week — Robin & Natanya pulled a point closer to Spector thanks to their 10th place pick for Haley — because everybody had her quite low. There is far more variation in the votes for Phil and Sanjaya, so there will be point swings when one of them leaves. 

Of course if Phil goes next week, in seventh place, it won't cause too much of a stir. The people who have him in 11th and 12th will take a little hit, but when you consider that the people who have him the highest (5th place, I think) and the people who have him in 9th (probably the largest group) will each hold even with each other, you realize again that he isn't going to hurt or help anybody too much unless he sticks around the to the top six. Personally, I don't think he will. He's already been in the bottom three and unprecedented three times in a row and four of the last five. How much longer can he hold on?

This is the first time this year there have been more men in the contest than women, so you have to figure the next to go will be a man. 

What will be interesting next week is, will there be an all male bottom three or will one of the favorites (Melinda, Lakisha, Jordin) be in the bottom three.

Besides perennial Phil, only two surviving candidates have been in the bottom three. Sanjaya once and Chris twice now. With Chris hitting the bottom three again, for the second time in five weeks, and both times after a pretty good performance, I have to assume he's not long for this show. My guess is that he and Blake are hitting the same demographic and Blake is just outpolling him. I actually like Chris better, but what does that mean? 

Could Sanjaya outlast Chris. It certainly seems possible right now. I don't see him outlasting Blake, or the three PowerGirls, but it's certainly possible that he could outlast one of them. Next week, there are seven singers left, the same number we had when Fantasia, LaToya and Jennifer made their fabled appearance in the bottom three. It's country week, following Latin week, a combo that doesn't seem to favor any of them. With the pretty, but untalented white girl gone, there is less for the voters to prove. So don't be surprised if two of the girls end up in the bottom three.

Country week might actually favor Phil. I'm sure it would have favored Haley.

And apropos of nothing, you gotta love that African kid who gave Simon man-boobs in the picture.

As for the pool, Spector continues to dominate, and with Melinda having a mediocre week (for her) his ballot is starting to look better. Steve is one of the few people in the pool whose bottom two is now gone.

After Robin and Natanya, we have John Frost and Kristina Clemente, scoring very high for a couple. John and Kristine are expecting and the winnings would go a ways toward keeping the new kid in diapers. They also have divurgent ballots so one of them stays in the race if Melinda stays and one is depending on her to go (in favor of Blake).

Kristina is just one point ahead of her brother Jo, two time winner, whose ballot has a number of weakspots. We have other couples doing well, such as Steve and Robin Vizvary, and the sisters Esposito, Destiny and Bliss.

The next weeks will tell us a lot.

I happen to love Latin music. I don't speak a word of Spanish, but when Ibraham Ferrer came out with his first CD after Buena Vista Social Club, I listened to it over and over. At some point, I found out there were lyrics printed somewhere but I made a point to avoid them. It's just beautiful rhythmic music and I don't have to understand the words to know what it means. The first time I heard that Robin Thicke song, lost without you, it was a version that had a female singer doing a verse in Spanish, I thought, what a great song. I've heard it since without the Spanish verse and I thought it was just okay.

And, as somebody who loves Latin music, I thought tonight's show was painful. For the most part, the singers chose the least truly Latin songs imaginable. Three of the four women sang Gloria Estefan songs. Nothing against Gloria Estefan, but she's Latin Adult Contemporary and if any of those women sang the English equivalent of those synthetic disco songs, they would have been totally dissed by the judges. As it was, two of them kind of were. Melinda (the only one who sang a non Gloria-tune) and Lakisha got some long-awaited disrespect. Inexplicably, Jordin, who looked good but didn't even seem to be trying, was praised. The one lesson I learned last night is that Conga and The Rhythm is Gonna Get You are two different songs. But not by much. I thought Lakisha gave hers a little more oomph. Jordin was just slow.

Haley did okay for her. I thought the speed of her song would kill her, but she kept the beat. Did nothing vocally over that beat, but she kept it. The legs looked good, but what was with that make-up, and instead of dancing at all, she just walked a lot. She would have done well to stay in one place but move around a little in that space.

Two of the guys picked Santana songs off the same album. In other words, they took the guy who melded Latin to Rock and crossed over with it to a rock audience and then took songs he recorded as a senior citizen in duets with Robbie Williams and Wyclef. Very Latin! 

Phil to me is just a slug. Good pipes, but no soul. And on a night like this, when his voice betrayed him (twice by my count) he's got nothing. It was work to listen to that song. I kept waiting for somebody to sing one line of Spanish in a Latin song. Phil was my greatest hope, I don't know why, maybe be cause he was in the service, I thought he might speak a little Spanish. After Phil, I vowed that if anybody would sing a little bit of spanish they would get my first vote of the season.

Between the good male singers, as usual, I liked Chris better and the judges liked Blake better. But they did like them both. I thought Chris took a good song and made it his. I thought Blake slowed his song down too much and I didn't feel it was that passionate. 

But still no Spanish, until Sanjaya. In this case, they saved the best for last. I said I would vote for the first person to sing in Spanish, and so I voted for Sanjaya. That's why I voted for him the first time. But I voted for him twice more because I thought he sang really really well. And I didn't like the fact that even Ryan is hating on him now. 

On the other hand, if you hate Sanjaya, you'll be pleased to know that it took me only five dials to vote for him three times.

Still I think he's good for another week. I think it will be Haley and Phil in the bottom again along with either Melinda or Lakisha. I think Phil is going home.

I guess Sanjaya belongs on the bottom three, but with all the conspiracy theories, I'm okay with him being where he was. He was better than usual this week and he's entertaining enough. He's at least as good as that crooner kid who lasted till sixth three-years ago, beating out a future Oscar winner in the bargain.

I have a new conspiracy theory, relative to Sanjaya, and if you read my post earlier, you might have missed it. I think there is a Sanjaya-blowback effect.

There are all these people who are in an uproar because they think somebody is trying to ruin the show by keeping Sanjaya alive. So they want to counteract it. So how do you send Sanjaya home? By voting for the most likely people to go home other than him.

The last two weeks Phil and Haley were in the bottom three, but instead of going home, surprising people went home instead. Chris Sligh and Gina. So, you had people voting for the favorites, people voting for Sanjaya, people voting for Phil and Haley as a vote against Sanjaya and nobody protecting those middle-of-the-packers. In the past I've written about the bounce, the extra support somebody gets the week after they survive a bottom-three appearance. Usually if somebody is in the bottom three, they either go home the next week or move out of the bottom three. Haley and Phil both being in the bottom three and not going home is somewhat unprecedented. I think they are unpopular enough to go home but the anti-Sanjaya vote keeps them around.

I kind of picked the bottom three. I gave Gina a maybe, but I was pretty surprised that she was the one to go. Had they sent Haley home, I would have said America nailed it.

I have to think Phil and Haley are going home the next two weeks. It's kind of unusual for anybody (let alone two people) to be in the bottom three two weeks in a row and not go home. Phil has been in the bottom three three of four weeks. The only week he wasn't was the week we only had a bottom two. For his still to be there shows remarkable staying power. It can't last much longer though.

I don't know that any of the eliminations have been particularly shocking, but taken as a whole, they are very surprising: Brandon, Stephanie, Chris Sligh and Gina. Who would have picked them. It's equally not surprising that Haley, Sanjaya or Phil are still around. What's surprising is that ALL three are still around. Leaving Hollywood, I said Brandon, Sligh and Phil were my three favorite guys. Throw in Antonella and Sundance and you have to say that most of the memorable auditioners are gone. I remember Lakisha, Melinda and Jordin's auditions, but I don't remember thinking any of them were potential winners. I don't remember Chris Richardson, Blake or Haley's auditions at all. Phil's I remember because of the baby and the navy think. I think I remember him just barely making it. I remember Sanjaya, and also remember thinking he was a pretty good singer.

Of course the one person who can say he isn't surprised is Steve (Melinda in 5th Place) Spector, who now has a commanding four point lead over the field. He also has Jordin higher than anybody. Other than that, his ballot is a mess. In spite of his commanding lead, he could very well finish in the bottom half of voters.

Lori Smith on the other hand is in a position to shock us. She's near the bottom now, but this was a good week for her, because she had Gina in 11th. She loses 2 points, just like somebody who had Gina 7th, but it's much better to have her lower. Lori's got Jordin in a bad spot, but she's got Melinda and Lakisha at the top and Sanjaya in 4th place. She could do some damage with that one.

With only eight singers left, even if Phil, Haley and Sanjaya go three in a row now, one of them will be in 6th place, which means double points. Here's an interesting thing you can do. Add up your scores for Haley, Phil and Sanjaya. A number of you have them 12, 11 and 10. That would add up to 33. Some of you have them 12, 11 and 9. Lori has them 12, 9 and 4. Which adds up to 25. The absolute worst they can do now is 8, 7 and 6 whch adds up to 21. Add up your scores. If they are 30 or more, you stand to lose a lot of points over the next few weeks. If it's under 30, you'll lose points, but gain on many of your competitors. Spector's got a good number. But unless Melinda gets kicked out for sleeping with Paula, that's as good as it gets.

Speaking of sleeping with Paula, I don't think Michael Buble has, but I do think he invaded her liquor or medicine cabinet. Was I the only one who thought he seemed drunk? Still sounded good though. Also, I thought somebody told me he was gay. If he is, that Antonella joke was a pretty lame attempt to pass.

I wonder why Tony Bennett didn't appear. I know he's a busy guy, but did a really have a Wednesday Night more important than doing a quick number for an audience of 30 million?

Kathryn brought up a good point, that a number of the contestants ignored Tony's advice. That's true, but I didn't mind Lakisha throwing in that little run at the end. It's from Bill Withers, by the way. I thought it fit and made the song hers.

Blake tried to follow the advice and sing slower, but his song got better once he picked up the tempo.

See your Ballot here (also top right under MY LINKS).

And it wasn't Sanjaya's fault (well not completely). He was reasonably competant... for him, I mean. But Phil once again proved that he has a voice, but little else, while Chris and Blake seem to have everything else, but not a voice. Or at least not one that compares to Melinda, Jordin or Lakisha.

Blake was okay, I guess, but by the end of the show, I barely remembered him. Chris was better and is probably my favorite guy, but he's just not in a class with the top women. The judges were right that he did manage to stay true to the feel of the song while injecting himself and a contemporary feel to it, but I just think his voice is weak. On a scale of Sanjaya to Melinda, vocally, I think Chris is closer to Sanjaya.

Of course not all the women were great. Gina was okay, but her song was kind of dull. Tony Bennett conjured up more emotion talking about the song than she did singing it. She did show some versatility and is looking better. And Haley looks great, but the fact that the judges can't find anything to comment about but her looks says something. She's not a bad singer. She's just not a pop star. I was talking to a guy I know who manages adult contemporary acts and I asked him if he thought Melinda or Lakisha would have pop careers. He said that at this point, anybody who makes the top 12 could work 50 weeks a year in places like Bramson and make a million bucks. That seems to be where Haley is heading.

So that leaves our top three. I think Lakisha is running third right now. I feel like Jordin has tip-toed ahead of her. Jordin definitely picked the worst song last night. Simon was right that it was too old for her. Ironically, it was the newest song sung. Clear Day was written in '65, after the rest of the music world had passed Broadway by. The other songs were written in the 20s, 30s and 40s, when pop, jazz and what we call standards were all the same thing. It was a bad choice of song, but she sang it great and really let her flawless vocals air out. I feel like she's dead even with Melinda right now, at least vocally.

So what does it all mean? Haley and Phil are in the bottom again and this time I think Phil is going. Who's going to join them? I'm tempted to say Chris, mostly cause he's been in the bottom before. I'm also thinking Gina. I really don't think it's going to be Sanjaya. I'm not saying all the hype is going to carry him to the finals, but there was so much attention on it this week in the media, I have to think it'll carry him at least another week.